Reema CummingsEarn money systematically with sports betting and become rich – that is the dream of almost every sports fan who opens an account with an online bookmaker for the very first time in his life. No wonder, as the way sports betting works is known to support and encourage this dream. Anyone who has once in their life bet through an entire match day in the Bundesliga using the classic 3-way system for fun and combined their results in a combination bet will know this.
Why there are high profits, but serious players practically never get rich with sports betting
The overall quota quickly reaches the high three-digit range. Not infrequently, the chance of winning is even four-digit. And that for just one euro. If the bet is then played with ten euros, a single combination bet would be enough and with a profit of 10,000 to 20,000 euros, everyday money worries would recede into the background for the time being. Or finally nothing stands in the way of your dream vacation in summer.
The problem is that statistics show that just 5% of all people who play at least three sports bets a month actually make a profit at the end of the month. And this number should alarm you, as a beginner who wants to follow the promise of a quick buck, in two ways.
- First, the terrifying reverse conclusion is that 95% of all people who regularly place sports bets make losses – and that means in more concrete terms that 19 out of 20 people lose their money.
- And secondly: The fact that 5% of all tipsters make a plus per month does not mean that these 5% will become rich, let alone make a living from it. Certainly it may be that with constant regularity, with the large number of players in the world, someone will hit the “jackpot” again and again, or turn a combination bet with ten or even more tips into a high five-digit win. But as is well known, every Saturday and every Wednesday in Germany there is one or even more lottery winners. Rather, the sober truth is as follows: Of the 5% of all players who make monthly profits, only a very small fraction can actually make a living from it. Serious players rarely get rich with it. A nice extra income can still be earned with clever sports betting with a system.
In today’s sports betting guide, we would like to show you why this is the case and how exactly it works, in which we want to dispel the myth once and for all that sports betting promises quick money. In fact, it takes hard work not to fall into one of the typical beginner’s traps.
7 beginner mistakes
Want to be in the 5% of gamblers who snub bookmakers about as much as the local football team who come to the All You Can Eat Buffet? Then, as a very first step, you must realize that this requires a lot of hard work. Simply having a good nose for the majority of the games you bet on over a long period of time doesn’t make a system. It’s actually called luck.
It is true that professional tipsters are happy to take the necessary bit of luck with them at the right time, but it must be clearly stated that – as long as you follow the rules – you are not dependent on luck for long-term and systematic profits, since if you type correctly you increase the probability of your have side. But one after anonther. Now let’s look at the seven rookie mistakes to avoid.
- Betting without mathematical foundations
- Leave the bet to chance
- Tap exclusively in the classic 3-way system
- Only be active with one provider
- Playing too many accumulators
- Start with exceptions
- Losing sight of the goal
1. Betting without mathematical foundations
Are you one of those students who didn’t want to believe the unwelcome maths teacher that you’ll need the stuff for your life later? In fact, this is extremely true when it comes to sports betting, as the fundamental mistake that causes 95% of all gamblers to lose regularly every month is making bets that are mathematically bankrupt.
For example, if you place a single bet every weekend that the big European clubs, such as Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1, FC Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, Juventus in Serie A or even FC Barcelona in La If you win your game in domestic football in the league, you will most likely lose big, even though you will win the majority of all bets. Quite simply because the sum of the winnings does not outweigh the few times in which the favorites statistically always go wrong. Even in the most dominant seasons in recent years, Bayern, for example, have never won more than 80% of their league games. Often only around 75%. A value similar to that of the other teams mentioned. And that just means that out of ten favorite tips submitted, two to three will fail. So if you only make a few euros in profit seven to eight times at often ridiculous odds, which can even be below the 1.10 mark in home games of the favorites (e.g. 1.04 or 1.06) – even if You play for very high stakes. If the two or three breakaways then come, it goes into the red with a bang and a wide arc.
Before placing a sports bet, it is therefore always necessary to calculate the probability of a bet potentially succeeding. The odds advertised by the bookmaker of your choice can then be used to calculate whether there is a positive expected value. The number one beginner’s mistake is either not to do the math at all, or, against better knowledge, to play bets that are associated with a negative expected value.
2. Leave the bet to chance
If there is a positive expected value, this does not mean that you should invest half your bankroll. Even a probability of occurrence of 75% cannot work out 25 times in a row before you then win note after note in a row and, viewed in the long term, become positive. Probability knows no memory. If you throw six dice, you will not roll every number exactly once, but will have pairs, triplets or possibly even more of the same number, while others will not have rolled at all. But if we throw millions or even billions of dice, the probability will eventually level off at the 16.67% that is mathematically intended for each number.
However, if you leave betting to chance and don’t pay attention to staking (bankroll management) at all, the first losing streak that comes your way will mean you’re going bankrupt. A long-term profit is therefore also categorically excluded. This assumes that you use a mathematical formula to calculate the correct stake for every bet slip that you submit. Ultimately, this is very simple. The information including the formula you need for this can also be found on our website:
How to calculate the optimal bet and practice serious money management in sports betting!
3. Tap exclusively in the classic 3-way system
Many tipsters play their sports bets primarily against the background that this should bring more excitement into the experience during the game. After all, anyone who has a tip on the underdog can cheer on them until the favorite pulls away, and vice versa.
This is exactly why you will usually only find the odds for the classic 3-way system for every Bundesliga game on the Bundesliga page in the program of every sports betting provider, while you have to open the often confusing menu for further betting options. Result tips are considered pure gambling, while beginners in particular are usually hopelessly overwhelmed by the many other markets. The menu is quickly closed again and you can bet on victory, draw or defeat – after all, it’s safe to say.
And that is logically a really big rookie mistake. Because the payout key for sports betting is never even close to 100%, but sometimes even well below 90% (90 to 95% are usual), it is possible that in the 3-way system not a single bet results in a positive expected value flows. Or if one of the three options does, then only extremely narrowly. For example, you need a predicted probability of occurrence of 65%, but in connection with the quota, the value is only given at 64.3%. In the long term, you make a profit (note: don’t forget the betting tax when you calculate the value!), but only a very minimal profit. There is also a risk that your 65% was not accurate. You should therefore only play tips where you have at least a 3% buffer. So if the odds have a minimum probability of 64.3%, you should have set at least 68% in your analysis for the tip to have value.
But if you don’t find any value bets in the 3-way system, you can still find them in one of the other numerous betting markets. Not infrequently even really appealing and profitable. Therefore, know as many betting markets as possible! For this purpose, we strongly recommend the various guides on our website, to which we link below:
- Over/Under 2.5 goals betting strategy
- Both teams meet betting strategy
- Half Time / Full Time Betting Strategy
- Tie betting strategy
- Goalscorer betting strategy
- Handicap betting strategy
- Double chance betting strategy
- Draw no bet strategy
4. Only be active with one provider
In principle, we do not want to tempt you in this article to open an account with all the best online betting providers that are available on the market. However, you should know that it will be difficult to be successful in the long term and to systematically earn money with sports betting if you are only active with a single bookie. Why this is so is obvious: every bookmaker has different strengths. For example, Bet365 is considered a top provider with excellent odds for all three options in the classic 3-way system, while Interwetten in turn offers excellent odds for the favorites. It is not uncommon for you to find the best odds in the entire network when betting on the favorites in the classic 3-way system for the Bundesliga.
Long story short, once you’ve found the best possible betting market, it’s also important to find the best odds advertised for that market. In this respect, it is advisable if you split the budget that you plan for sports betting across three or four providers so that you don’t lose cash because the only bookie you are registered with is your brand name Outsider tip does not offer such a brilliant rate as another bookie.
5. Playing too many accumulators
Although there is a Bundesliga combo betting strategy, which we go into in detail in the accompanying guide article on our website, we also make it very clear in this also very essential guide that combo bets are the first step towards a loss. It is not for nothing that providers lure you with attractive bonuses, which are additionally paid out after a certain number of tips. Precisely because the probability of such certificates falling quickly into the low per thousand range. And with that, nobody who approaches the topic halfway seriously can really plan.
Think about how many tries it might take on a losing streak to win a 75% probability single bet. It can be the first, but it can also only be the 26th or the 100th. With a combination bet with a probability of occurrence of 0.00005%, we quickly reach lottery dimensions. If you see sports betting as pure gambling then we wish you the best of luck with your betting and wish you hit the big bucks. But if you really want to systematically earn money with sports betting, then the combination bet tends to be anything but your friend.
6. Start with exceptions
Once you play seriously for a few weeks or months, you will eventually come across a tip that you use to identify value, but then shy away from it because you don’t give the bet a chance. Suppose FC Bayern Munich plays at home against the bottom of the table. A crystal clear number. However, the odds for the underdog are 26.00. This means that a mere 4% probability of the outsider throwing the big shot brings a positive expected value into the bet. And this value must be allowed to invest with all probability. After all, two Bundesliga clubs are playing against each other here. Certainly there are clear favorites and roles within a league. All 22 players on the pitch are full-blooded professionals. And at the end of the day, every game still starts at 50:50 and no match is automatically lost.
But if you shy away from playing the outsider bet and instead say, “Oh, I’ll skip that” just because you’ve been losing money on similar bets in the weeks before, that’s also a crystal clear rookie mistake. Serious players switch off their feelings at this point and concentrate on the clear rules of the math. And they tell you, firstly, to play the bet, and secondly, how much money you can spend on it so that you don’t go broke. So stay true to your line and don’t even start with such exceptions!
7. Losing sight of the goal
Last, but not least, making money systematically from sports betting is always a long-term goal. Getting rich in the short term is simply impossible with a serious game! This is only possible by placing risky combination bets on excessive stakes. And there’s a 99.9% chance that you’ll lose your money completely within a few betting slips.
Therefore, never forget that you will not be billed until the end of the month or the end of the year. Playing sports bets means that you got everything right with your bet 100%, but in the end you still lose because of the laws of probability. The art is that the bottom line profits outweigh the losses. This can also mean that there is a phase in which you do absolutely nothing and in which you lose ten, 20 or 50 bets in a row. We don’t want to wish that on you, but unfortunately it happens to the best and most successful tipsters. No one filed for bad luck. The wheat is separated from the chaff in how these bad luck streaks are dealt with.
If you lose sight of the goal, you place a risky live bet out of an emotion after losing a lottery ticket, for example, with which the losses are to be recovered in one fell swoop. The first step for a solid tilt, which in the end made quite a few tipsters the 95% who failed in their plan to systematically make money with sports betting.
Another popular mistake and a hasty reaction that loses sight of the goal: Pulling the very insidious cash out function and selling the bet early – almost always with losses and even with smaller winnings with ultimately a negative expected value, whereupon we will go into detail in the corresponding guide article.
Therefore: make it a point to stick to all the rules and never lose sight of the goal, even in the bad phases that are part and parcel of sports betting (the good news is: there are also streaks of luck).
How much money you can realistically win monthly if you play by the rules
If you stick to the rules, you can realistically turn 10 to 20% of your bankroll into profits if you play regularly. So that means you’re going to have to build really big bankrolls if you want to make a living out of it. Because to earn 100 euros relatively safely, you would need a bankroll of 1,000 euros.
At this point, this may be sobering news for all those who want to get rich with sports betting. However, the naked truth is that these 10 to 20% are the only thing that can be seriously and soberly promised. Nevertheless, take a positive view: As a die-hard fan, you will probably follow the Bundesliga games anyway. Accordingly, the preparation and analysis of the games should not eat up a lot of time. If you don’t cash out the money in the first year, but continue to grow your bankroll, you will also find yourself in areas where it is becoming more and more appealing. And once you have 1,000 euros in your account, we are talking about an extra income of 100 to 200 euros per month, for which you hardly have to make any significant effort.
The important thing is that you avoid abbreviations here as well. It wouldn’t be a beginner’s mistake if you put 1,000 euros into your account right from the start (but please only if you can afford it 100% and this money is not missing from an important budget in the household coffers), right at the beginning to generate higher revenues. Nevertheless, it is recommended that you first practice with smaller amounts for a few months to see whether you have what it takes to avoid the seven rookie mistakes mentioned here that prevent you from systematically making money with sports betting on the Bundesliga. Because don’t forget: 95% of all tippers demonstrably don’t have this ability.
We’ll keep our fingers crossed!
